Run Run Away

Question:

- Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – I would like to know some (fairly) reliable scaling factors for longer distances from shorter ones. For example, I saw in the Runner’s World article on Marathon running (some time ago) that you should mulitply your half-marathon time by 2.1 to get your (predicted) marathon time. There are no doubt others. I want to be able to set a target for 1/2 Marathon and Marathon times so that I can aim for a realistic target. As examples I give my (probably poor) PRs below: what times should I be capable of for the longest two distances, based on my shorter ones? 5k  21:35 4 miles  28:20 5 miles     34:24 1/2 mara 1:34:30 Mara     3:35:45 I set the 5 mile PR yesterday, 11 days after my first Marathon, so I am pretty pleased that my legs have recovered so quickly (or maybe I ought to have run the Marathon faster??  ). I have yet to run a 10k race (I have only been running semi-seriously for about 5-6 months). TTFN, Tim

One thing you can do is to determine an equation that will predict your times for any distances based upon your known results, such as Tim has above. For Tim this equation is         T = 6.3331*D + 0.06875*D^2 where T is time in minutes, D is distance in miles.  So if Tim ran 7 miles he should do 47.7 minutes (ie 47:42) or better. Plotting Tim’s scores with a slightly different (less perfect) equation gives         T = 6.1921*D^1.0738 If you double D you find T increases by 2.1, the factor Tim got from the article.  The first equation more closely describes Tim’s times, though. If you send me your results on a $5 bill I’ll do the same for you! Ken Manning

Response:

I would like to know some (fairly) reliable scaling factors for longer distances from shorter ones. For example, I saw in the Runner’s World article on Marathon running (some time ago) that you should mulitply your half-marathon time by 2.1 to get your (predicted) marathon time. There are no doubt others. I want to be able to set a target for 1/2 Marathon and Marathon times so that I can aim for a realistic target. As examples I give my (probably poor) PRs below: what times should I be capable of for the longest two distances, based on my shorter ones? 5k       21:35 4 miles  28:20 5 miles  34:24 1/2 mara 1:34:30 Mara     3:35:45 I set the 5 mile PR yesterday, 11 days after my first Marathon, so I am pretty pleased that my legs have recovered so quickly (or maybe I ought to have run the Marathon faster??  ). I have yet to run a 10k race (I have only been running semi-seriously for about 5-6 months). TTFN, Tim

Response:

I set the 5 mile PR yesterday, 11 days after my first Marathon, so I am prett pleased that my legs have recovered so quickly (or maybe I ought to have run the Marathon faster??  ).

Galloway in his book warns that even though some people set PR’s right after their marathon, they shouldn’t push too hard because they are still tired deep down . . . Robert Lendvai         |   "My favorite, I might say, the "Fool on the hill" |     my only study, is man."

Response:

Gardner and Purdy published, some time ago, a point system by which one can try to predict performance at one distance from another.  This point system is used by some running associations (at least around here) to award "points" for clubs and individuals. I have added the "Purdy Points" for your PR’s below, and have also tried

Excellent. Thanks very much indeed – that’ll help me to set my goals. to give the numbers that answer various questions you asked.  Looks like you have trained best for 5-15 miles and that you should be able to get your 4 mi time down.

Drat! Oh well, back to the training! Tim

Response:

| | I would like to know some (fairly) reliable scaling factors for longer | distances from shorter ones. For example, I saw in the Runner’s World article    … Gardner and Purdy published, some time ago, a point system by which one can try to predict performance at one distance from another.  This point system is used by some running associations (at least around here) to award "points" for clubs and individuals. I have added the "Purdy Points" for your PR’s below, and have also tried to give the numbers that answer various questions you asked.  Looks like you have trained best for 5-15 miles and that you should be able to get your 4 mi time down. |                       Points      Time(350 points)  Time(400 points) | 5k         21:35       350                 21:35             20:38         | 4 miles    28:20       350            28:20             27:05 | 5 miles    34:24       401            36:01             34:36    10 k                                  45:33             43:32 | 1/2 mara 1:34:30       406          1:39:33           1:35:02 | Mara     3:35:45       349          3:35:35           3:25:37 These numbers come from a Windows program called Runner, which is available from oak.oakland.edu (or other mirror sites) in a directory something like /pub/dos/database (I’m not sure that’s exactly right, but it’s probably close enough for you to find it).  Also see the help panels in Runner for more info about Purdy Points. Roger T. Cutler             Chevron Petroleum Technology Company  (Jiffy Lube)               Exploration Department Phone: (713) 596-3012       Houston, TX 77242-2832

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